Inflation spikes to nearly 50-year high of 31.5pc

585

Pakistan’s inflation — measured by the consumer price index (CPI) — broke all previous records and skyrocketed to 31.5% in February due to a steep rise in prices of food, housing, and transportation groups.

The fresh inflation reading issued by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Wednesday has also augmented the prospects of a further rise in interest rates in the upcoming monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting — which the central bank has preponed for March 2.

The inflation rate rushed to 31.5% in February over the year — the highest since the available data i.e. July 1965. Last time, in April 1975, the inflation had been recorded at slightly over 29%.

The pace of increase in the prices beats the expectations of the finance ministry that had just a day ago given a 28% to 30% inflation range.

The monthly inflation rate jumped 4.3% in February over January — which according to Sana Tawfiq — an economist at the Arif Habib Limited — surged due to an increase in the average prices of food items such as poultry, fruits, pulses, oil, vegetables, ghee, LPG, gas charges, and domestic petroleum products.

The inflation reading suggests that the government will have to review its strategy to unlock the critical $1.1 loan tranche from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The government has not been able to regain any lost ground from the IMF and is giving one after another shock to the people.

The core inflation, calculated after excluding the volatile energy and food prices, also spiralled to 17.1% last month in urban areas and 21.5% in rural areas, signalling price growth is gathering pace across most categories of goods and services.

Going forward, Tawfiq said that inflation is likely to remain elevated on the back of higher food prices (especially due to the Ramadan factor), tariff hikes and a weaker currency.